Heading into year end, markets are set to finish another solid year, particularly overseas, after significant uncertainty at the start. But in the past month, there has been some uneasiness as interest rate expectations have fluctuated and shifted, especially in Australia, which has seen a moderate correction retrace some of the year’s gains. In this report we take stock of these recent developments and assess near-term prospects.

For over a decade, until this year, being concentrated in US equities within international portfolios produced better returns, as the US market outperformed the rest of the world most years. But this year, another one of strong returns, the US has underperformed, illustrating again the benefits of being more diversified. This report considers the case for this going forward and highlights some major companies in markets other than the US. 

The ~6% drawdown in the ASX 200 has been accompanied by a far sharper pullback in the local IT sector, which is now down ~25% from its recent highs. This report highlights buying opportunities from the recent ASX tech pullback, with a focus on TechnologyOne and Xero.

The Australian market has seen a ~7% pullback from its all-time October highs. This report explores the outlook for ASX equities over the next 12 months, in light of both domestic and global conditions.

Following the major banks’ results over the past month, our cautious sector stance and underweight positioning remain unchanged.  This report provides an updated view of the sector and outlines our preferred bank exposures.

Despite the uncertainty this year, with the Trump Administration’s sweeping policy changes, geopolitical flashpoints, and a record US government shutdown leaving a blackout of data on the US economy of late, equity markets have rallied further. Coming on top of earlier gains, this may have left the US market offering less potential now than other markets around the world, and this report examines the risk of this.

During AGM season there have been several prominent themes, including healthy consumer demand, an improving supermarket sector outlook, ongoing strength in domestic housing, and emerging AI tailwinds benefiting select companies. This report explores each of these key themes in detail.

The latest US reporting season confirms that profitability remains a supportive pillar for the equity market. The Q3 season has delivered strong absolute growth and upgrades relative to consensus. This report examines the outlook for US equities heading into 2026, in light of strong earnings and profit performance, as well as the AI-focused capex acceleration.