The outlook for returns in 2026 is somewhat constrained by the risk of RBA rate hikes, as well as still-elevated valuations. Against this backdrop, this report outlines some our key views for 2026, which include remaining overweight Resources, staying underweight Banks, retaining exposure to ‘AI winners’ and favouring Supermarkets over Discretionary Retailers.

Our base case is that the key drivers that have delivered tail winds for the US market should continue to be supportive in 2026, despite valuations being stretched by historical standards. This report explores the key market drivers for 2026 - including the possibility in the capex-fuelled AI boom - and the implications for both Australian and global equities.

An increasingly hawkish domestic interest rate outlook has removed a key tailwind for Domestic Cyclicals. In this environment, we favour offshore earners – particularly companies with significant US-based earnings. In this context, two of our preferred Quality Cyclicals are Aristocrat Leisure and CAR Group, which we discuss in this report.

After a year adapting to major policy changes in 2025, the latest Federal Reserve projections anticipate the US economy emerging on track for stronger growth and lower inflation in 2026. In contrast, the latest assessment from the RBA sees risk of signs of a broad-based inflation pick up and the potential need to raise interest rates again next year. In this report we consider the implications for markets of these developments. 

This report examines the interest rate sensitivities of key ASX sectors. We analyse how sectors have historically performed in the lead-up to RBA hiking periods and overlay this with our current views on valuations and fundamentals. We also outline how those views may evolve should the RBA’s stance turn more hawkish over the year ahead.

For a decade, the large US tech stocks have been producing great returns, underpinned by strong earnings growth, and have outperformed the broader US market most years. Yet more recently returns have also been solid across a wide range of US stocks, and many are adopting the technological advances being driven by the Mag 7. In this report we take stock of the recent performance and consider some opportunities for diversification in the US beyond the mega caps.

It would appear a cut from the Fed is highly likely. Market confidence in a Fed cut has continued to firm over the past week with pricing sitting at 89% probability at the time of writing (Dec 5th).  This report looks at the outlook for US and Australian equity markets following the Fed’s interest rate decisions going into 2026, and the implications for price movements on global and Australian debt markets.

Momentum in the Mining sector appears to be turning, with broad-based strength across major commodities now underpinning what could be the early stage of a significant resources upgrade cycle. This report explores our broadly positive view of the ASX Mining sector at this juncture, particularly for pure-play copper, aluminium, and gold stocks.