The Australian dollar has experienced a notable rebound from its recent April lows, up 11% post ‘Liberation Day’, when risk-off sentiment and heightened volatility weighed heavily on markets. In spite of all this, from a long-term perspective the Australian dollar continues to look cheap.  This report looks at the outlook for the Australian dollar in light of these developments, as well as the implications for portfolio allocations.

Easing inflation, interest rate relief and stronger incomes are creating a favourable backdrop for consumer and retail companies, supporting a strong earnings growth outlook. Valuations, however, appear stretched at the sector level, trading at multi-decade highs. Despite this, there are select opportunities that still offer value, including Collins Foods, Autosports Group and Universal Store.

The price of gold has soared this year-to-date by 39%, with another surge over the past month of 5%. This suggests gold may be overbought in the short-term. This report provides a rundown of gold’s history as an investment, and explores its future prospects in light of geopolitical uncertainty, de-dollarisation and global monetary policy trends.

Since the start of the RBA easing cycle on February 18, the Small Ords have returned 14.3%, outpacing the ASX 100’s return of 5.8%. This note will explore the general case for small caps, why current outperformance can continue and provide two key opportunities.

Bond yield movements have been attracting heightened attention recently, with competing narratives buffeting bond markets and the very long end of yield curves rising across the G7. This report examines the key factors currently impacting the US and Australian bond markets, and the outlook for fixed income securities.

…From a Walk to a Jog. Australia’s real GDP grew by 0.6% in the June quarter and 1.8% year-on-year, beating consensus expectations of ~0.4% - 0.5% growth for the quarter. Private demand improved in the quarter led by the household sector. This report looks at Australia’s current economic performance and the broader implications for rate cuts and asset markets.

The Australian market has continued its strong price performance through the August reporting period, with the ASX200 index up 3%. This takes the 12-month total return performance to 15%. This report looks at the implications of the August reporting data for the upcoming performance of Australian equities, and where opportunities are set to lie.

In this report, we review ‘the good, the bad and the ugly’ from the past week of reporting – including detailed reviews of results from CSL, James Hardie and Stockland – and provide the rationales for recent changes to the Focus Portfolio.