Across three decades the market has valued Commonwealth Bank (CBA) at a premium relative to its three peers. Whether we look at earnings, dividends or book measures of valuation, CBA has consistently traded at a 15-20% premium since the 1990s. Currently 2-3x higher than the past 20 years, we outline why we believe CBA’s premium has peaked.
18th Nov, 2021
While there has been an understandable focus on the outlook for inflation and interest rates in recent months, earnings are a key blank in the global equity outlook. We examine the latest batch of earnings results in the US and Europe and the outlook for 2022.
15th Nov, 2021
The Wilsons Australian Equity Focus List has been updated following a number of earnings announcements and company updates in the past month. A rollover in earnings momentum has continued for the S&P/ASX 200. Some of this is a function of falling iron ore prices and domestic lockdowns, but several stock-specific situations have seen earnings slip from FY22E and into FY23E. We see the key implication for investors being the need to be more selective around portfolio positioning.
11th Nov, 2021
While the RBA maintained its cash rate and left the pace of QE unchanged, it did announce it is dropping its yield curve control policy along with its guidance for no increase in the cash rate until 2024. While the RBA has conceded some ground, it continues to emphasise patience.
8th Nov, 2021
Does a rising A$ create a headwind for the equity market? Our short answer is that headwind is not insurmountable, given the earnings recovery thematic is likely to still win the day. We explore several underlying reasons around the composition of the Australian market to explain why a potentially stronger $A is not a threat.
4th Nov, 2021
After plunging to multi-decade lows in mid-2020, global energy prices have soared in recent months. Multiple factors on both the demand and supply side have combined to drive up the price of oil, and even more dramatically gas and thermal coal prices.
1st Nov, 2021
Major bank reporting season gets underway this week. We see FY21 results as being more about stock-specific issues rather than being driven by macro factors that have dominated recent results. We unpack the four key themes of reporting season.
28th Oct, 2021
High inflation readings across many economies in recent months has led to talk of “stagflation”. To help put investors’ minds at ease we detail why the characterisation of the current (or near-term) economic environment as “stagflationary” is a fair way wide of the mark.
25th Oct, 2021