The rapidly evolving global trade environment, particularly between the US and China, has driven significant uncertainty in the outlook for commodity demand. In light of heightened macro risks, we have reduced the Focus Portfolio’s energy sector exposure and increased our overweight to the gold sector.

Following the latest US tariff news, we have increased our exposure to defensives by adding Woolworths and upweighting Brambles. We have also increased our exposure to gold by upweighting Evolution Mining. These additions have been funded by the removal of Breville and WEB Travel, which both face an increasingly challenging global macro outlook.

The outlook for M&A activity in 2025 is broadly positive and should be supported by several key macro factors. This report explores the key M&A themes that we expect to play out in 2025 and screens the ASX for potential takeover candidates. We also assess James Hardie’s recent A$14bn acquisition of US-listed AZEK.

The ASX 200 has followed US equities lower, with the index now down ~8% since mid-February, which represents the largest drawdown in the local market since late 2023. Looking through the near-term macro uncertainties, this market pullback has created attractive buying opportunities, which is the focus of this report.

The oil price has come under pressure this year, due to planned supply additions from OPEC+, easing conflict in the Middle East, and macro concerns driven by escalating trade tensions. This report is focussed on our near and long-term outlook for the oil price, and our preferred energy sector exposure, Santos.

As we approach the end of the reporting season, with ~80% of the ASX 200 having now reported (on a market capitalisation basis), the overall earnings picture has remained mixed. This report explores some of the major updates from the last week and discusses changes we have made to the Focus Portfolio. 

As we approach the halfway mark of reporting season, with ~40% of the ASX 200 having now reported (on a market capitalisation basis), it is clear that delivery against forward consensus expectations has been the key to stock outperformance. This report explores key results from across the Healthcare, Banking, Online Classifieds, and Insurance sectors.

The RBA is now widely expected to deliver its first of several interest rate cuts when it meets next week on the 18^th of February. This report explores the domestic cyclicals that still offer attractive value and are well placed to benefit from a recovery in consumer spending, with a focus on portfolio holding Collins Foods.