Tech is by a wide margin the best performer since the market’s April lows. Market concentration, or “Tech leadership” has been a periodic concern in recent years. This report explores the Tech sector’s rising prominence amongst US equities, and whether or not the market is seeing the re-emergence of a bubble in the wake of the AI boom.

US inflation surprised in both directions last week, with headline surprising to the downside while core inflation surprised to the upside. Market pricing for a September cut firmed, while the US equity market jumped.  This report looks at the implications of Trump’s tariffs and the latest inflation data for rate cuts by both the US Fed and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

After an extended period of resilience, recent data releases suggest the US economy is losing momentum. Q2 GDP confirmed H1 growth of just 1.1% versus last year’s run rate of 2.6% while the non farm payrolls report shocked the market with large downward revisions. This report explores this downshift in economic data, alongside the implications for rate cut decisions from the Federal Reserve and the outlook for US equities.

The ABS released Q2 inflation data on Wednesday, which supports growing expectations that the RBA will move to cut rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming August 12th meeting. This report explores the outlook for the RBA’s interest rate decisions moving ahead, as well as the implications for equities, fixed interest and alternative investments.

The Australian equity market is moving into the full year FY25 reporting season, and will almost certainly see its third consecutive year of flat to negative EPS growth at the index level. This report explores the outlook for Australian equities in FY26, including the diverging performance between resources and All Industrials.

The debate over US exceptionalism from an economic and financial market perspective has intensified in 2025, as global investors debate America's capacity for continued dominance. This report examines the sustainability of US exceptionalism and American dominance of the global economy moving ahead.

Last week the RBA Policy Board defied market pricing and the great majority of economists’ predictions (including ourselves) by opting to keep the cash rate on hold at 3.85%.  This report explores the outlook for the RBA’s rate decisions moving ahead and their likely impact on equities and bonds.

The second quarter has delivered a volatile ride but ultimately positive returns for investors. While performance has been strong, uncertainty is still elevated. This leads us to retain some caution in respect of near-term market prospects. This report examines the macroeconomic and investment outlook into the second half of 2025 and provides our latest thoughts on portfolio positioning.