While market volatility has picked up, the central tenant of our Q4 asset allocation outlook remains that the global economy will continue to grow at an above-average rate over the next 12 months and that central banks will withdraw policy support relatively slowly. With this backdrop, equities are likely to deliver solid returns over the next 12 months.
11th Oct, 2021
Equities have made a stunning recovery from the COVID-19 induced lows of March 2020. In the space of 18 months, US stocks have climbed 96% (US$) while Australian stocks have climbed 61%. While a correction feels overdue, we explain why this is not a certainty anytime soon and give context to our positive 12-month outlook for global and local shares.
27th Sep, 2021
The assumption of relatively low inflation is central to the pricing of interest markets and permeates through the current pricing of virtually all risk assets. So, any signs of a crack in the low inflation thesis (such as the dramatic spike in US inflation in Q2) need to be watched closely.
20th Sep, 2021
Last week’s RBA September meeting flagged a tapering of bond purchases, with its base case being positive economic growth in Q421 and solid growth through next year. Just a week earlier, at its US Jackson Hole conference, the US Fed hinted at a likely tapering of its bond purchasing program before year-end, although it left the exact timing open-ended. So, what exactly are the implications of a winding down of QE and will it spell trouble for the stock market?
13th Sep, 2021
The national accounts for the second quarter showed Australia’s GDP rose 0.7% relative to the previous quarter. This was above the consensus expectation of a 0.4% rise. The year-on-year (YoY) pace rebounded to a record 9.6%, albeit this is based on a comparison to last year’s deeply depressed second quarter.
6th Sep, 2021
At Wilsons, we believe an allocation to private equity (PE) makes sound strategic sense within the broader alternative investments portion of diversified portfolios. In our view, the case for private equity investment rests on three key pillars: a strong performance track record for the asset class, a deep and differentiated opportunity set, and significant diversification benefits.
23rd Aug, 2021
In May 2020 our research spoke to a satellite holding in emerging market equities (EM) having the potential to add value for investors over the medium to longer-term. Following very strong performance from EM equities in the second half of 2020, the past 6 months have been more challenging, with a broadening regulatory crackdown impacting the Chinese equity market in particular.
19th Aug, 2021
The global earnings cycle continues to surprise with its strength. Both US earnings and European earnings are significantly exceeding analyst expectations.
12th Aug, 2021
It is noteworthy that bond yields have fallen back to very low levels while the US and Australian equity markets have continued to push higher, reaching record highs. Are bond investors foretelling a significant slowdown in global growth that equities investors are ignoring?
6th Aug, 2021