Global growth momentum has softened somewhat in recent months, led by slower growth in the world’s major economies. In this report, we assess prospects for the global economy, against a developing global rate cut cycle, structural challenges in China and the uncertainty created by the US election.

Despite some near-term choppiness in global equity markets, the backdrop for global equities remains reasonably supportive with rate cuts and a soft landing. The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to kick off a significant rate cutting cycle this week, with at least three 25 basis point cuts by year end.

The Australian economy remains in an unusual spot, beset by sluggish headline growth alongside sticky inflation, a relatively tight labour market and low productivity. In this report, we examine the outlook for Australia’s economy heading into 2025, including the challenges of rebalancing and when the RBA is likely to ease policy.

Australian equities pushed higher through August, as US recession fears and Japanese carry trade selling subsided quite quickly. In this report, we look at the implications for Australian equities of elevated PE levels, as well as prospects for a rate cut from the RBA.

Recent market volatility has masked significant global performance rotation, with small and mid caps outperforming over the past month. In this report, we investigate how the monetary policy cycle might affect small and mid cap stocks, and what other equity sectors look attractive.

The US second-quarter earnings season paints a picture of robust corporate earnings growth, despite the pullback in the S&P 500 over the last few weeks. In this report, we examine the role of tech in the strong performance of the S&P 500, and the outlook for the US market given the strong tech led gains over the past year.

Volatility has spiked over the past two weeks, with equity markets falling significantly before bouncing. Bond yields also dropped sharply, while currency markets (most notably the Yen) have seen heightened volatility. In this report, we look at why risk assets can stabilise and ultimately recover, as US recession fears ease and the rapid undermining of carry trades stabilises.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in better than expected for the June quarter, providing cheer to both interest rate and equity markets. The RBA is likely to stick to a ‘hawkishly dovish’ stance, however, by keeping interest rates steady. In this report, we examine the dynamics underlying Australian inflation and the outlook for rates adjustments from the RBA.