The latest US reporting season confirms that profitability remains a supportive pillar for the equity market. The Q3 season has delivered strong absolute growth and upgrades relative to consensus. This report examines the outlook for US equities heading into 2026, in light of strong earnings and profit performance, as well as the AI-focused capex acceleration.

Australia’s headline CPI for Q3 2025 rose by 1.3% q/q, significantly above the consensus estimate of 1.1%. The print was also more than 60bps above the RBA's most recent estimate of 0.7% q/q. This report looks at the shift in the outlook for rate cuts from the RBA, in light of the surprise inflation figures from the third quarter. It also examines the likely impact on Australia’s asset markets and exchange rate.

The Australian economy finds itself at a pivotal juncture, and the RBA in a precarious position. Inflation is inching above the desired range, yet signs of weakening in the labour market are emerging. This report looks at the outlook for the RBA’s interest rate decision moving into the final quarter of 2025, given the challenges it faces balancing its dual mandate of price stability and full employment.

The strength of the US tech sector and general hype with respect to potential AI opportunities has raised the question of parallels to the dot com bubble boom of 1999 - 2000. While there are some cautionary parallels between then and now, we don’t find the same evidence of a broad-based bubble. In this report, we assess the current market picture relative to the early 2000s dot com bubble.

The Australian dollar has experienced a notable rebound from its recent April lows, up 11% post ‘Liberation Day’, when risk-off sentiment and heightened volatility weighed heavily on markets. In spite of all this, from a long-term perspective the Australian dollar continues to look cheap.  This report looks at the outlook for the Australian dollar in light of these developments, as well as the implications for portfolio allocations.

The price of gold has soared this year-to-date by 39%, with another surge over the past month of 5%. This suggests gold may be overbought in the short-term. This report provides a rundown of gold’s history as an investment, and explores its future prospects in light of geopolitical uncertainty, de-dollarisation and global monetary policy trends.

Bond yield movements have been attracting heightened attention recently, with competing narratives buffeting bond markets and the very long end of yield curves rising across the G7. This report examines the key factors currently impacting the US and Australian bond markets, and the outlook for fixed income securities.

…From a Walk to a Jog. Australia’s real GDP grew by 0.6% in the June quarter and 1.8% year-on-year, beating consensus expectations of ~0.4% - 0.5% growth for the quarter. Private demand improved in the quarter led by the household sector. This report looks at Australia’s current economic performance and the broader implications for rate cuts and asset markets.